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Strategic Instincts

The Adaptive Advantages of Cognitive Biases in International Politics

Dominic D. P. Johnson

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Princeton University Press img Link Publisher

Sozialwissenschaften, Recht, Wirtschaft / Politikwissenschaft

Beschreibung

"A very timely book."—Anne-Marie Slaughter, CEO of New America
How cognitive biases can guide good decision making in politics and international relations


A widespread assumption in political science and international relations is that cognitive biases—quirks of the brain we all share as human beings—are detrimental and responsible for policy failures, disasters, and wars. In Strategic Instincts, Dominic Johnson challenges this assumption, explaining that these nonrational behaviors can actually support favorable results in international politics and contribute to political and strategic success. By studying past examples, he considers the ways that cognitive biases act as “strategic instincts,” lending a competitive edge in policy decisions, especially under conditions of unpredictability and imperfect information.

Drawing from evolutionary theory and behavioral sciences, Johnson looks at three influential cognitive biases—overconfidence, the fundamental attribution error, and in-group/out-group bias. He then examines the advantageous as well as the detrimental effects of these biases through historical case studies of the American Revolution, the Munich Crisis, and the Pacific campaign in World War II. He acknowledges the dark side of biases—when confidence becomes hubris, when attribution errors become paranoia, and when group bias becomes prejudice. Ultimately, Johnson makes a case for a more nuanced understanding of the causes and consequences of cognitive biases and argues that in the complex world of international relations, strategic instincts can, in the right context, guide better performance.

Strategic Instincts shows how an evolutionary perspective can offer the crucial next step in bringing psychological insights to bear on foundational questions in international politics.

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Schlagwörter

Cognitive bias, Mental disorder, Heuristic, Social science, World War I, Military operation, Kamikaze, Politician, Nazi Germany, Probability, Stephen Peter Rosen, Disadvantage, Daniel Kahneman, Racism, Offensive realism, Evolutionary psychology, Brinkmanship, Soviet Union, Prediction, War, Superiority (short story), Attribution (psychology), British Army, Uncertainty, Nuclear weapon, Disaster, John F. Kennedy, Saddam Hussein, Surrender of Japan, Theory of International Politics, Rationality, Psychologist, Prejudice, Pacific War, Error management theory, Weapon of mass destruction, Effectiveness, Experimental psychology, Motivation, Rational choice theory, National security, Carl von Clausewitz, Positive illusions, Heuristics in judgment and decision-making, Warfare, Positive psychology, Air raids on Japan, Cognition, Battle of Midway, Politics, Harvard University, Strategic goal (military), Cost–benefit analysis, Ingroups and outgroups, Result, Aggression, Bomb, Adolf Hitler, Estimation, War effort, World War II, Adaptive bias, Behavior, Political science, Human behavior, Ingredient, Calculation, Blockade, Strategic bombing, Japan Self-Defense Forces, Fundamental attribution error, Determination, Foreign policy, Morale, Banzai charge, International relations, Technology, Security dilemma, Confidence, Across the Pacific, Competition, Error Management (EM), Psychiatry, Negotiation, Optimism, Literature, Military strategy, Dispositional attribution, Decision-making, Great power, Behavioral economics, Obstacle, European theatre of World War II, Political psychology, Psychology, Behavioural sciences, Wishful thinking, Social psychology, Illustration, Deterrence (legal)