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Strategic Instincts
Dominic D. P. Johnson
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Sozialwissenschaften, Recht, Wirtschaft / Politikwissenschaft
Beschreibung
"A very timely book."—Anne-Marie Slaughter, CEO of New America
How cognitive biases can guide good decision making in politics and international relations
A widespread assumption in political science and international relations is that cognitive biases—quirks of the brain we all share as human beings—are detrimental and responsible for policy failures, disasters, and wars. In Strategic Instincts, Dominic Johnson challenges this assumption, explaining that these nonrational behaviors can actually support favorable results in international politics and contribute to political and strategic success. By studying past examples, he considers the ways that cognitive biases act as “strategic instincts,” lending a competitive edge in policy decisions, especially under conditions of unpredictability and imperfect information.
Drawing from evolutionary theory and behavioral sciences, Johnson looks at three influential cognitive biases—overconfidence, the fundamental attribution error, and in-group/out-group bias. He then examines the advantageous as well as the detrimental effects of these biases through historical case studies of the American Revolution, the Munich Crisis, and the Pacific campaign in World War II. He acknowledges the dark side of biases—when confidence becomes hubris, when attribution errors become paranoia, and when group bias becomes prejudice. Ultimately, Johnson makes a case for a more nuanced understanding of the causes and consequences of cognitive biases and argues that in the complex world of international relations, strategic instincts can, in the right context, guide better performance.
Strategic Instincts shows how an evolutionary perspective can offer the crucial next step in bringing psychological insights to bear on foundational questions in international politics.
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Probability, Rational choice theory, Wishful thinking, Behavior, Error management theory, Political science, Nazi Germany, Error Management (EM), Nuclear weapon, Cognitive bias, Determination, Technology, Politician, Prejudice, War, Literature, Military operation, Brinkmanship, John F. Kennedy, International relations, Confidence, Rationality, Uncertainty, Politics, Evolutionary psychology, Military strategy, Motivation, Dispositional attribution, War effort, Social psychology, Behavioral economics, Psychologist, Mental disorder, Illustration, Deterrence (legal), Fundamental attribution error, Security dilemma, Political psychology, Adolf Hitler, World War I, Human behavior, Competition, Japan Self-Defense Forces, Prediction, Aggression, Decision-making, Strategic bombing, Optimism, Surrender of Japan, Experimental psychology, Superiority (short story), Behavioural sciences, National security, Offensive realism, Disadvantage, Obstacle, Result, Negotiation, Foreign policy, Psychology, World War II, Racism, Social science, Adaptive bias, Great power, Theory of International Politics, Daniel Kahneman, Ingroups and outgroups, Heuristic, Disaster