Leseprobe
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Social Choice with Partial Knowledge of Treatment Response
Charles F. Manski
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Sozialwissenschaften, Recht, Wirtschaft / Wirtschaft
Beschreibung
Economists have long sought to learn the effect of a "treatment" on some outcome of interest, just as doctors do with their patients. A central practical objective of research on treatment response is to provide decision makers with information useful in choosing treatments. Often the decision maker is a social planner who must choose treatments for a heterogeneous population--for example, a physician choosing medical treatments for diverse patients or a judge choosing sentences for convicted offenders. But research on treatment response rarely provides all the information that planners would like to have. How then should planners use the available evidence to choose treatments?
This book addresses key aspects of this broad question, exploring and partially resolving pervasive problems of identification and statistical inference that arise when studying treatment response and making treatment choices. Charles Manski addresses the treatment-choice problem directly using Abraham Wald's statistical decision theory, taking into account the ambiguity that arises from identification problems under weak but justifiable assumptions. The book unifies and further develops the influential line of research the author began in the late 1990s. It will be a valuable resource to researchers and upper-level graduate students in economics as well as other social sciences, statistics, epidemiology and related areas of public health, and operations research.
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Bayes' theorem, Statistical power, Decision problem, Statistical significance, Social welfare function, Decision theory, Clinical trial, Sample space, Population, Sample Size, Optimal design, Almost surely, Psychotherapy, Recidivism, Probability, Result, Expected value, Optimization problem, Sampling (statistics), Average treatment effect, Randomization, Instrumental variable, Statistical inference, Bayesian statistics, Idealization, Simple random sample, Best, worst and average case, Random function, Pointwise, Posterior probability, Prior probability, Estimation, Internal validity, Randomized experiment, Upper and lower bounds, Randomized controlled trial, Outcome (probability), Type I and type II errors, Inference, Rate of convergence, Bayesian, Thought experiment, Subset, Theory, Decision-making, School of thought, Bayesian inference, Treatment Outcome, Bias of an estimator, Empirical distribution function, Marginal return, Quality of life, Sampling design, Lebesgue measure, Monotonic function, Statistical hypothesis testing, Mutual exclusivity, Utilitarianism, Probability measure, Ranking (information retrieval), Experimental data, Observational study, Loss function, Probability distribution, Stratified sampling, Binomial distribution, Random variable, Social choice theory, Covariate, Physician