Leseprobe
* Affiliatelinks/Werbelinks
Links auf reinlesen.de sind sogenannte Affiliate-Links. Wenn du auf so einen Affiliate-Link klickst und über diesen Link einkaufst, bekommt reinlesen.de von dem betreffenden Online-Shop oder Anbieter eine Provision. Für dich verändert sich der Preis nicht.
Historical Dynamics
Peter Turchin
* Affiliatelinks/Werbelinks
Links auf reinlesen.de sind sogenannte Affiliate-Links. Wenn du auf so einen Affiliate-Link klickst und über diesen Link einkaufst, bekommt reinlesen.de von dem betreffenden Online-Shop oder Anbieter eine Provision. Für dich verändert sich der Preis nicht.
Geisteswissenschaften, Kunst, Musik / Geschichte
Beschreibung
Many historical processes are dynamic. Populations grow and decline. Empires expand and collapse. Religions spread and wither. Natural scientists have made great strides in understanding dynamical processes in the physical and biological worlds using a synthetic approach that combines mathematical modeling with statistical analyses. Taking up the problem of territorial dynamics--why some polities at certain times expand and at other times contract--this book shows that a similar research program can advance our understanding of dynamical processes in history.
Peter Turchin develops hypotheses from a wide range of social, political, economic, and demographic factors: geopolitics, factors affecting collective solidarity, dynamics of ethnic assimilation/religious conversion, and the interaction between population dynamics and sociopolitical stability. He then translates these into a spectrum of mathematical models, investigates the dynamics predicted by the models, and contrasts model predictions with empirical patterns. Turchin's highly instructive empirical tests demonstrate that certain models predict empirical patterns with a very high degree of accuracy. For instance, one model accounts for the recurrent waves of state breakdown in medieval and early modern Europe. And historical data confirm that ethno-nationalist solidarity produces an aggressively expansive state under certain conditions (such as in locations where imperial frontiers coincide with religious divides). The strength of Turchin's results suggests that the synthetic approach he advocates can significantly improve our understanding of historical dynamics.
Kundenbewertungen
Decentralization, Agrarian society, Competition, Cumans, Logistic function, Ottoman Empire, Asabiyyah, Group selection, Dynamical system, Free parameter, Ethnic group, Failed state, Carolingian dynasty, Hypothesis, Quantity, Theory, Khazars, Peasant, Population dynamics, Parameter, Eastern Europe, Explanation, Income, Derivative, Golden Horde, War, Threshold model, Sociology, Ideology, Visigoths, Social dynamics, Population growth, Alemanni, Result, Randall Collins, Research program, Literature, Merovingian dynasty, Carrying capacity, Population decline, Collective action, Prediction, Probability, Case study, Tax, Western Europe, World-system, Kievan Rus', Jack Goldstone, Proportionality (mathematics), Avars (Caucasus), The Other Hand, Austrasia, Chiefdom, Warfare, Variable (mathematics), Initial condition, Institution, Religious conversion, Ibn Khaldun, Historical sociology, Social capital, Population density, Empirical research, Holy Roman Empire, Saxons, Slavs, Differential equation, Ethnogenesis, Negative feedback