Modelling Potential Malaria Spread in Germany by Use of Climate Change Projections
Gunther Schmidt, Winfried Schröder
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Springer International Publishing
Naturwissenschaften, Medizin, Informatik, Technik / Geowissenschaften
Beschreibung
This book investigates the spatial distribution of potential temperature-driven malaria transmissions, using the basic reproduction rate (R0) to model the reproduction of the malaria pathogen Plasmodium vivax. The authors mapped areas at risk of an outbreak of tertian malaria in the federal state of Lower Saxony (pre-study) and for whole Germany (main-study) by means of geostatistics for past (1947-2007) and future periods. Projections based on predicted monthly mean air temperature data derived from the IPCC and regionally discriminated by two regional climate models (REMO, WettReg) for the countrywide study.
Kundenbewertungen
vector-borne diseases, Plasmodium vivax, Anopheles atroparvus, risk mapping by GIS, basic reproduction rate, climate change impacts, climate change